The Clemson football program has reached a point of conference dominance that hasn't been seen in the ACC since Florida State ran off nearly a decade of conference championships (and top-five AP Top 25 poll finishes) under Bobby Bowden in the 1990s. The Tigers still have some work to do in order to match that epic run -- currently a run of five-straight conference crowns and College Football Playoff appearances -- but the betting odds for the 2020 season tell quite a story as it pertains to any possible change at the top of the ACC.
Clemson is an overwhelming favorite to win the 2020 ACC Championship Game, given -600 odds in first release of lines from William Hill Sportsbook ahead of the season. No team in the country is more heavily favored to win its respective conference, the closest being the odds given to Ohio State (-240) to win the Big Ten and Boise State (-200) to win the Mountain West.
That kind of imbalance on the odds board sets up for interesting analysis from the wagering perspective, and we identify all kinds of angles below. But first, the odds to win the 2020 ACC Championship Game, via William Hill.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
Clemson | -600 |
Miami | +800 |
North Carolina | +1400 |
Virginia Tech | +1800 |
Florida State | +2000 |
Louisville | +3000 |
Pitt | +3000 |
Virginia | +3000 |
NC State | +3000 |
Wake Forest | +6000 |
Duke | +8000 |
Syracuse | +8000 |
Boston College | +10000 |
Georgia Tech | +15000 |
Pick to win / Worst Wager -- Clemson (1-6): In the ACC, pretty much any non-Clemson selection is going to fall into the category of "value pick," so let's get the obvious out of the way first: The Tigers are more than likely going to be the ACC champions yet again. Since the start of 2015, Clemson has gone 38-2 in conference play and finished each season ranked in the top 10 nationally in scoring margin. Entire recruiting classes have cycled through without even feeling like they were close to victory against the ACC's ruling family. This has been a slow build for Dabo Swinney to the top of the mountain and that means it's going to be even harder to knock them off. No team in the ACC currently has the combination of raw talent, proven player development and staff continuity that you'll find at Clemson. It's a terrible wager considering how much money you would need to risk for a small payoff, but Clemson winning the ACC in 2020 is the right pick.
Best bet -- Virginia Tech (18-1): Last week, we laid our predictions for every single ACC game, and by the time I was done picking the ACC's 2020 schedule, the Hokies were sitting at the top of my simulated ACC Coastal standings alongside North Carolina, each with a 7-1 record. My starting point when choosing non-Clemson winners is to look at the ACC Coastal and figure that the winner will at least have a one-game shot at stunning the Tigers and winning the conference championship. I'm going with Virginia Tech over North Carolina here because the Hokies have a slightly better payout but both seem like more sensible selections than Miami. The oddsmakers are giving the Hurricanes the second-best odds to win the ACC, but I'd favor Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Florida State in games against the Hurricanes in 2020. I don't like Miami's chances to even win the division, much less take down Clemson in the championship game.
Longshot -- Florida State (20-1): If you're going to pick an ACC Coastal team with the idea of a one-game stunner, then why not consider one of Clemson's division rivals. It's a little bit tougher here because not only would that team need to beat the Tigers in the regular season -- again, something that's only happened twice in Clemson's last 40 ACC games -- but also go 6-1 or 7-0 against the rest of its ACC schedule in order to maintain the head-to-head advantage in the division standings. I think Florida State is closer to being a 10-win team than many expect, though the gap between the Seminoles and the Tigers has become a gulf over the last half-decade. But if -- a big if -- Florida State were to knock off Clemson in the regular season, I think there's enough talent at FSU to maintain an in-road to the conference title game.
